Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.337066 2.726183 3.157616 3.671118 4.265376 4.931210 5.733643
2026-01-04 1.733832 2.254600 2.894358 3.736675 4.815216 6.148695 7.921613
2026-01-11 1.358973 1.932460 2.698799 3.794452 5.317443 7.356181 10.289480
2026-01-18 1.095275 1.680296 2.519702 3.806161 5.721912 8.462378 12.673093
2026-01-25 0.898961 1.473952 2.351885 3.781320 6.041069 9.464371 15.030590
2026-02-01 0.711375 1.239212 2.091975 3.558669 6.005833 9.909268 16.586853
2026-02-08 0.586690 1.080023 1.919044 3.435679 6.092644 10.532377 18.482311
2026-02-15 0.503811 0.975810 1.817328 3.409407 6.325656 11.409463 20.898682
2026-02-22 0.458389 0.930296 1.808857 3.541828 6.847954 12.838010 24.448786
2026-03-01 0.399982 0.849161 1.720974 3.510939 7.061521 13.735986 27.147646
2026-03-08 0.347753 0.770819 1.625286 3.447988 7.200109 14.504566 29.691575
2026-03-15 0.309665 0.715043 1.565210 3.445415 7.453587 15.517509 32.829387
2026-03-22 0.298532 0.717695 1.629972 3.720395 8.332055 17.913611 39.137491
2026-03-29 0.270890 0.678656 1.600357 3.790124 8.792240 19.530089 44.081489
2026-04-05 0.245897 0.641275 1.568451 3.849859 9.240088 21.181984 49.334325
2026-04-12 0.221045 0.599542 1.519577 3.862130 9.581380 22.646214 54.372352
2026-04-19 0.197309 0.556105 1.459355 3.837070 9.830328 23.934111 59.181355
2026-04-26 0.166540 0.488105 1.326999 3.611272 9.558149 23.979825 61.082523
2026-05-03 0.144916 0.440914 1.239835 3.486529 9.518196 24.568919 64.369833
2026-05-10 0.130285 0.410768 1.192688 3.459885 9.726445 25.790920 69.390481
2026-05-17 0.123487 0.402441 1.203802 3.594211 10.381814 28.221193 77.812371
2026-05-24 0.111438 0.375725 1.158663 3.562878 10.580180 29.498005 83.386544
2026-05-31 0.099734 0.347774 1.105279 3.499023 10.677948 30.521792 88.421130